Ridiculous!
Wednesday, November 30th, 2005Proving that the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) speaks on behalf of advertisers and not publishers, new IAB guidelines for video cap pre-roll ads at 30-seconds. While not saying that 30-seconds is optimum (that’s to come later), the IAB does green light the broadcast standard. Listen carefully, folks. Any publisher who runs 30-second ads before streaming video is a fool.
According to Online Media Daily, the guidelines also state that it is “recommended and acceptable” to give users the ability to fast-forward, rewind, pause, and zoom during the ads–but also state that the fast-forward button need not be enabled while the ad is playing.
“Giving end-users the ability to fast-forward through ads is an anomaly, and will probably stay that way,” Allen (Larry Allen, Unicast’s general manager and a member of IAB’s broadband committee) said. “Advertisers draw the line with [fast forwarding]; they insist on some kind of a tax for content.”
That’s so 20th century.
Another victim of mass marketing’s decline
Wednesday, November 30th, 2005The earliest players in every new form of mass communication were Christian evangelicals. The printing press was built to print the Bible. Evangelists were there when radio came along, and two of the transponders on the very first Satcom satellite were owned by televangelists. Whether standing on a soap box in the town square, in a huge tent that moves from town-to-town, or beaming down via satellite, evangelical preachers have depended a mass audience to deliver their message of salvation even if they only “reached” a few.
As I got deeply immersed in the Internet during the 90s, I kept asking myself, “Where are the evangelicals?” There were a few Websites and some good research tools, but missing was the kind of leading edge entrepreneurial efforts that accompanied other communications breakthroughs. My question was answered yesterday in the Senate hearings about indecency.
The FCC appears ready to do a flip-flop on the idea of letting cable subscribers pick and choose the channels for which they wish to pay. This is called “a la carte” pricing, and it’s very definitely a form of unbundled media. That means the idea of further empowering end users of media would be advanced, and it’s something I’ve been talking about for quite some time.
The FCC is being urged to do this by the Parents Television Council (PTC) — a lobbying organization that claims to speak for parents. It doesn’t, but that’s beside the point. The PTC believes that a la carte service will make it easier for the FCC to regulate what it views as indecent content in our (your) homes. You’d think that evangelical ministries would support this idea, but they don’t. Why?
Because they rightly believe that their potential reach would be harmed, if subscribers were permitted to pick and choose what they’d want to pay for. In other words, anything that undercuts mass marketing is inherently bad for evangelicals, and that includes the Internet. Evangelical organizations need new blood to sustain growth, and everybody knows the size of the crowd usually determines the size of the offering.
But the ground online is level and interactive. One-on-one communication works best here, something you’d think would be ideal for the message of Christianity. It’s not, because the dynamics of group in the hands of a charismatic speaker are a necessary part of the way evangelicalism is done.
This is hugely significant, imo, because it says a lot about the core struggle underway in our culture — the empowerment of the individual at the expense of our institutions. Like the Wicked Witch of the East, the house of consumers is falling from the sky, and mass marketing is unable to get out of the way.
Oh my!
Online video advertising set to boom
Tuesday, November 29th, 2005According to a report by eMarketer, published today in MediaDailyNews, the online video advertising marketplace is expected to triple to $640 million by 2007 and reach $1.5 billion by 2010. eMarketer analyst David Hallerman states that online video ads often enhance conventional TV advertising campaigns.
“Television and the Internet are developing new ways to complement each other,” notes eMarketer’s Hallerman, calling video the “common ground” between the two media.The big factor driving eMarketer’s aggressive estimates is the rapid adoption of the consumer broadband marketplace, making video advertising a more seamless viewing experience than via dial-up. According to eMarketer, more than half of US online households connect via high-speed access, and by 2008, more than half of all US households are projected to have broadband Internet access.
But this is a trap, because while broadcasting treats online video advertising as a second-class citizen, other entities are (and will be) picking up the growing scraps. New habits are being formed that will leave broadcasters scratching their heads when they finally realize they need to compete here. The online video marketplace is very different from over-the-air, and repurposing news clips isn’t going to cut it downstream.
I’m reminded of that famous quote attributed to the late Senator Everett Dirksen: “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.”
Trusting the Audience and the Readers
Monday, November 28th, 2005Here is the latest essay in the ongoing series “TV News in a Postmodern World.” The relationship between media source and reader/listener/viewer in the new media world is one of the most difficult concepts for contemporary media people to understand. That’s because it’s counterintuitive. In our one-way world, the audience is passive, while it is active and involved in the world of media 2.0. To be successful, therefore, we’re going to need to find a way to trust those we’ve not had to trust in the past, and that won’t be easy. That’s because the roots of our lack of trust run very deep, and that’s what this essay discusses.
A (stock) picture is worth a thousand words
Saturday, November 26th, 2005Thanks to the good folks at Morningstar.com, here are 12-month stock charts for 12 public companies that own and operate television stations:
Belo

Emmis

Fisher

Gannett

Gray

Hearst-Argyle

Media General

Meredith

New York Times

Sinclair

Tribune

Young

We need to stop turning people off - now!
Saturday, November 26th, 2005I’m late to the game with this, but Tom Hespos has written an important piece that begs marketers to look beyond the short term. It mirrors something I learned a few years ago and have been saying ever since: TV promotions people don’t realize how badly their promos turn people off.
We “tease” people who don’t wish to be teased. We “drive them to” programs where they don’t wish to be driven. By our language and our behavior, we’ve been telling viewers for years that we don’t give a shit about THEM. This, as Tom so beautifully points out, is our downfall.
We’re stuck in the Age of Short-Term Impact, where many marketing decisions primarily hinge on a particular tactic’s ability to move product off of store shelves within the current quarter. Very little attention is being paid to the long-term effects of these tactics. There are not enough marketers asking what happens to the 99 percent of people who didn’t immediately rush out to the store to buy the marketer’s product. Are those people approachable again? Or have they been so inundated with overly intrusive ad formats that they’re forever aligned against the marketer’s brand?Look at comments people leave in online communities about brands they dislike. Did many of these brands commit some unforgivable sin when servicing the customer? Some did, but you’ll find that many people reacting negatively in consumer forums are doing so because they’ve been broadcasted to instead of interacted with. There’s only so much that consumers can take, especially when technology helps to make indiscriminate broadcasting obsolete.
Fixing this is a key part of reinventing ourselves for a personal media world.
I am thankful
Thursday, November 24th, 2005Gratitude is a form of humility, a state of being wherein we acknowledge that we don’t run everything. Anything else is a form of self-worship, for if we’re not grateful to someone or something else, then who do we thank? Ourselves?
Humility is a great strength and not the weakness that greed teaches.
And if we’re not thankful to others — and especially to a higher power — then we’re completely slaves to time and chance, and frankly, that’s not something I can handle. If you rely on luck to get you by, then you’ve no choice but to accept the opposite.
I’m thankful to God for sustenance, the best mate on the planet, a roof over my head, the warmth of family and friends, eyes to see and ears to hear, ideas, gifts, skills, talents, ways to express them, a good night’s sleep, a room with a view, shoes on my feet, food in my belly, people to love and people who love me, air to breathe, clean water, my dog, occasional glimpses of wisdom, and mostly for His help when I can’t do it myself.
I’m thankful to you for reading my stuff and for the feedback I get from you. I’m especially thankful for you this year, because of your generosity when I needed it the most — surgery to remove a lump from my breast. My nipple smiles for you.
I’m also thankful that the secret things belong to God, which means I don’t have to know everything. Life is much more manageable when I’m not trying to manage it.
I’m extremely thankful, as well, that people don’t have to agree with me. I genuinely feel sorry for people who have trouble with the chicken or egg question, but I’d never argue with their right to be that way. Life has a way of teaching tolerance, because it’s easy to think in black and white, until you’re confronted with your own shades of grey.
I’m generally a happy guy, and that begins with believing that — despite circumstances sometimes — I’m right where I’m supposed to be. To be comfortable in your own skin is God’s greatest gift. It’s taken me many years to get there, but I have that today.
May this Thanksgiving holiday find you in a similar place.
Put a fork in it; the blockbuster is done
Wednesday, November 23rd, 2005Take a step away from your current job and your current thinking for a moment, and let’s take a little trip down reality lane. I’ve long said that mass marketing is dead or dying. The first bullet was the remote control, and the ammo has been coming fast and furious ever since. I believe there will always be pockets of mass marketing, but those will be exceptions to the rule. In order to market to the masses, you need a one-directional communications medium with few consumer controls. It’s all backwards now, and it’s not just audience fragmentation that’s killing the mass audience. The bigger story is that the blockbuster — that necessity of true mass marketing — has been killed by the empowerment of the individual.
Does anybody remember Roots? What a dream that was for the mass marketers. It was a genuine blockbuster, and TV has been trying to duplicate it ever since. Blockbusters are funny in that they’re usually not all that predictable. They happen more often by accident, and it’s increasingly the public’s choice to make the determination. But blockbuster mentality is what greases the wheels of mass marketing, because we mistakenly believe that — through enough hyperbole and slick marketing — we can “create” the buzz and audience that natural blockbusters produce. Hence, as new media economic whiz kid Umair Haque of BubbleGeneration has written, the money in our mass media society is mostly given to marketers, experts at artificially creating the blockbuster. It doesn’t work anymore, and that money needs to be shifted to content in order to compete in today’s reality.
The new effort — again citing Haque — is to use our resources to generate the “Snowball Effect,” something that costs much less money and takes advantage of the structure and systems of new media, especially the Internet’s long tail. All you need to get a snowball started is to roll it down the hill. It does its own marketing as it gets bigger and bigger. Most don’t, but some grow to enormous size. All are extremely cost-effective and produce results.
Here’s Umair on the Snowball Effect from a post about the success of a book (Call To Action) without bookstores:
It’s the dominant Media 2.0 strategy; the inverse of the blockbuster is a useful way to think about it.Note, it’s not simply about viral marketing. That’s missing the forest for the trees.
It’s about the fact that consumption is connected - in a networked world, when you consume something, your consumption has an externality: I generally know how much satisfaction you got. As enough of this info is aggregated, demand within the niche increases for high-quality goods (and decreases correspondingly for low-quality goods).
That is, quality drives popularity hyperefficiently…if your good is of high enough quality, it will realize increasing returns, as people’s consumption reveals their satisfaction to yet more people.
Now, this can happen via word-of-mouth. But that’s a very inefficient mechanism, and it’s not really economically powerful enough to create enough snowballs to destroy old industry economics.
It’s the advent of much more efficient info processors - micromedia like blogs, and their distribution, aggregators - that is going to lay the groundwork for the snowball effect on a much larger scale - on a scale that is going to deconstruct industries which depend on marketing scale and scope economies. Like Hollywood, for example.
The last real blockbusters on TV are sporting events. The Superbowl and, especially, the Olympics can make your year. Elections are blockbusters of a sort. The inability of mass marketing to create other blockbusters is why we always hear that “revenue decline can be attributed to the lack of the Olympics or an election.” This is an excuse and nothing more.
We need to give up on the blockbuster, and that includes trying to turn every disaster or weather situation into one. Hurricanes generate blockbuster interest, but the daily grind of news just doesn’t. But you’d never know that by the hype associated with every newscast in America.
To create snowballs, we need to unbundle our mass media products and send the pieces on their merry way.
Back on at higher speed
Tuesday, November 22nd, 2005Can you see my dust?
I’m in my new office, and Jeff from Comcast came by to soup up my Internet connection. For an additional $10 a month, I have the Platinum Premium package, which I’d never heard of before. Whoosh! I just did Speakeasy tests, and I’m getting nearly 10 meg download speeds in locations and 7 kbs upload speed in all locations. The worse “here-to-there” problems for me are San Francisco and Seattle, but to the lush server farm locales in D.C. and New York, I’m getting 11 meg download speeds. Amazing!
Jeff told me that Comcast is going to 10 megs down and one meg up next year as their standard broadband package. This will enhance the development of video on the Web.
I’m happy to be back in business. Moving is a bitch. Boxes everywhere. Sore muscles and the constant thirst of dehydration. But the view from my window is westward, which I’ve always wanted. In Nashville, that means I can watch the storms move in. Great neighbors, too. The guy across the street is a real CSI. How cool is that?
Back to work.
Moving, moving, moving
Saturday, November 19th, 2005Allie and I are moving into a rental house this weekend. You know the drill. I’m offline for a couple of days (How will I ever survive?) until everything gets reconnected on the other side. See you all later.
Why your brand doesn’t matter in an unbundled media world
Friday, November 18th, 2005You say you don’t get this media 2.0 stuff? Well, here’s a must-read commentary from Jaffer Ali, founder of PennMedia. Mr. Ali’s company specializes in pre-roll online video advertising, and this article deftly makes the case that ad agencies who buy Websites as opposed to the content of Websites will soon be obsolete.
So we see that content, even if only text, is king. But this theory is about to be kicked into full gear with video content. With video content poised to become the most desirable content to which advertisements can attach, how important is the selection of a particular Web site? Pre-roll advertising will attach to video content wherever it is. It could be on a video iPod. The content can be on a well-branded Web site, or it can be on a Web site that gets only one thousand page views a month. The video content is the packet or brand that is important, not the Web site or even device.When a user initiates the view of video content, the audience is self-selected. The audience for “Seinfeld” clips is the audience that an advertiser covets–regardless of what Web site or device it is on. This fact is missed by most media agencies right now. If they do not understand the new dynamics, they will make themselves obsolete.
It’s all just marketing
Thursday, November 17th, 2005Since I grew up in the 1950s and 60s, the Cold War is a very real part of my history. You had to be there to understand what it was like to have air raid drills every week in elementary school. The fear was the atomic bomb coming via the Soviet Union’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Our own ICBMs were named “The Minuteman” missile. Nice. The name conjures imagery from our past.
Then came Vietnam and our taste for war changed. The cold war abated, but we still needed our missiles in order to be a superpower. In 1986, we launched what was supposed to be a replacement project for the Minuteman. What did we call it? The Peacekeeper. Here was a missile that could deliver ten nuclear warheads, and we called it the Peacekeeper.
Minuteman. Peacekeeper. Minuteman. Peacekeeper.
Isn’t it interesting how a little marketing savvy can change the perception?
Fast forward to 2005 and the announcement yesterday by network researchers that DVR technology is good, not bad, for network advertisers. They’re claiming that DVRs represent a net gain for network TV, not a reduced value in audience exposure. Huh?
NBC’s crack researcher Alan Wurtzel — according to Media Daily News — noted “that popular network TV shows tend to be the most recorded and played-back content among DVR users, creating an opportunity for viewers to see more of the shows they would otherwise miss.” As a recorder of network shows, I can attest that this is true. It allows me to watch competing shows, and I am definitely viewing shows I would otherwise miss.
But — and this is the biggie — I do not watch the commercials.
Minuteman. Peacekeeper.
Madison Avenue’s reaction was skeptical.
“It really is very difficult to accept the broadcasters’ position,” said Jim Kite, executive vice president-research, insight & accountability at MediaVest. “Ask anyone who has a DVR and watches a program in playback mode and they fast-forward the commercials. We think in the region of 70-90 percent of the time. The stats they presented defy logic. We are very confident that the vast majority of top up DVR ratings will be programming, not commercial, driven.”
While I agree with that statistic, I’m skeptical of their claim that TV viewers still notice commercials as they fast-forward over them. Alan Wurtzel, NBC’s chief researcher, went as far as saying it was an “urban myth” that DVRs make commercials worthless. Ok folks, if you’re fast-forwarding through a commercial, it’s worthless. Period. Seeing a logo for a tenth of a second doesn’t count. (If you stop to watch, that’s a different matter. But how often does that happen?)
Minuteman. Peacekeeper.
You decide.
Dear Comcast,
Wednesday, November 16th, 2005You need to fix this quickly, or I’m moving to the Dish Network.
We had an exciting evening of severe weather in Tennessee yesterday, which is always problematic for those of us who are trying to watch network television. The local affiliates interrupt programming for wall-to-wall coverage when things get rough, and we appreciate that. Of course, they overdo it, but at least they’ve got current information and radars and such.
You, on the other hand, are a significant and dangerous irritant during times like these on digital cable, because you interrupt their interruptions with 1950s style Emergency Broadcast System warnings. Think about it for a minute, you idiots. Here we have competency during a Tornado warning swept away by your commandeering the picture and sound with relentless beeping and a twice-repeated crawl. Just as the meteorologist is about to zoom in on my neighborhood, your automated bullshit robs me of the moment. WTF?
And there’s nowhere to hide from this in your digital world either. For God’s sake, you fucking morons, this is the 21st Century! We have technology that will serve your needs and the needs of the government without hijacking the transmission.
What’ll it take? Somebody’s going to sue your ass for blocking their access to real life-saving information.
Sheesh.
Light blogging this week
Tuesday, November 15th, 2005I’m working with clients this week. We’re developing new Web concepts that I’m sure you’ll find interesting downstream. I exist to create; this I know is true. So it’s a fun week, but one where I’ll be out-of-pocket for the most part. TTFN.
The real birth of Internet TV
Monday, November 14th, 2005The Web is abuzz with activity over the AOL and Warner Brothers announcement that they will join to deliver old television shows via the Web beginning next year. Over 300 hours of old programming, including shows like “Welcome Back Kotter” will be available for free download via the new service, which will be called In2TV. The programs will be accompanied by four 15-second streaming ads, and AOL is projecting 4 million advertising impressions a month for advertisers–as much as a small cable channel.
This is the birth of Internet television, in my opinion. Read the PaidContent report for links on the technology being used, because it makes possible the viewing of these shows on your living room’s TV via, for example, Microsoft’s upcoming XBox360. These may be old programs, but that’s irrelevant.
Here’s some recommended reading:
What’s wrong with this picture?
Sunday, November 13th, 2005Below is a screen grab from the latest Shoptalk newsletter, a house organ of the television news industry. I don’t wish to embarrass the young lady in this ad, but I do want to point out that this is a fundamental problem for the TV news biz.

And here’s the real nut of it. Whether she got the idea herself or somebody put it there for her, she is marketing her appearance in order to get a foot in the door, and that idea wasn’t born in a vacuum. It is what it is, and the industry is responsible for it.
And how many of the faces in our broadcast journalism or communications schools are there based upon that same belief?
When we survey the currently journalism landscape and see the explosive growth of the blogosphere, we cannot deny that one of the reasons for the phenomenon is a lack of depth in mainstream reporting (exceptions acknowledged). People are smarter than our marketing, which emphasizes sizzle over steak and performance over content. Hungry for the real meat of knowledge, we’re turning to each other — and experts who don’t happen to carry a professional badge — to help us meet our information needs.
Rewriting history — or not
Saturday, November 12th, 2005I’m burying the lead here, folks, so bear with me.
Postmodernism offers many problems for authority and the status quo, which is the biggest reason those in power choose to vilify everything about it. Even that allegedly open-minded bastion of freedom called academia plays a role in this, because the institution of education (like all others) is also based on hierarchy and authority. I don’t think postmodernism is a choice; it’s simply a turning of the historical page. As such, those who steadfastly refuse its fruit are begging for irrelevancy.
One of the central thoughts of postmodernism is deconstruction, the taking apart of any belief (or whatever) and examining its roots. I think deconstruction is a good thing, and I routinely follow the practice in examining modernist cultural (and especially business) norms. It’s amazing what you can find by a little trip through history. The whole professional versus amateur journalism argument, for example, becomes a little more easy to understand if Walter Lippmann and his beliefs form the/a foundation for contemporary journalism instead of the illusionary heroics of Woodward and Bernstein.
As I’ve written in the past, the structure of the Internet forces users into the practice of deconstruction, whether they know it or not, by undermining the authority of text. This is the great cultural threat to the status quo. Through links and references — and especially those provided by bloggers — people are now thrust into a deconstructionist reality, where absolutes have difficulty flourishing. You can decide for yourself it that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but you cannot deny that it is occurring.
A couple of years ago, Chicago attorney and philosopher Peter Lurie published what I think is a seminal essay in understanding the cultural influence of the Internet.
The content available online is much less important than the manner in which it is delivered; indeed, the way the Web is structured. Its influence is structural rather than informational, and its structure is agnostic. For that reason, parental controls of the sort that AOL can offer give no comfort to conservatives. It’s not that Johnny will Google “hardcore” or “T&A” rather than “family values;” rather, it’s that Johnny will come to think, consciously or not, of everything he reads as linked, associative and contingent. He will be disinclined to accept the authority of any text, whether religious, political or artistic, since he has learned that there is no such thing as the last word, or indeed even a series of words that do not link, in some way, to some other text or game. For those who grow up reading online, reading will come to seem a game, one that endlessly plays out in unlimited directions. The web, in providing link after associative link, commentary upon every picture and paragraph, allows, indeed requires, users to engage in a postmodernist inquiry.
This is an enormous problem for those in power, which brings me to my buried lead.
The headline in today’s Tennessean reads: Bush rips ‘rewriting history’ of Iraq war. This is a textbook modernist argument in an increasingly postmodern world, and it makes the guy look like an idiot. It’s not that history is being rewritten; it’s that history is being written from multiple perspectives. That’s a BIG difference. There’s isn’t any one higher reality anymore that has the right to determine history for everybody, and this may become the greatest deterrent to war on our planet. It’s a problem for authority, however, because the need to control the history is a critical element in the justification for killing people in the first place.
How terribly modernist.
Ground control to network researchers
Friday, November 11th, 2005It must be hard to be Alan Wurtzel. He’s the head of research at NBC and the leader of a network consortium that’s working like the devil to overcome nature the disruptive technologies that are making it harder and harder to make an easy buck over-the-air. The effort he’s heading includes NBC and likely CBS, Fox and The WB, and they’re working with the boys and girls at Nielsen to find ways to make audiences appear bigger than Madison Avenue says they are.
Joe Mandese at MediaDailyNews offers an excellent overview of the plan today. It involves a new research methodology that Nielsen is announcing called Shifted Average Audience estimates, or SAAs. That’s right. The status quo is betting on Nielsen to bail them out of the unbundled media world by coming up with gobbledygook that Wurtzel and his ilk will stand there with a straight face and use to prove that the 30-second commercial is alive and well — and that it somehow has value even if people fast forward through it. In the words of the immortal Frank Barone, “Holy Crap!”
The SAAs, which Nielsen describes as a “new statistic,” go beyond the initial playback of a DVR-recorded show to include all subsequent playbacks. Nielsen describes them as being similar to the so-called GAA ratings, or gross average audience estimates developed for the TV syndication business, where the same episode of a syndicated TV show may air on a station or stations several times a week, yielding a gross rating that is higher than the initial one. GAAs are an accepted form of currency for ad deals in the TV syndication business.“The introduction of a Shifted AA, SAA, would produce similar numbers to the Gross Average Audience GAA statistic but be specifically tailored to deal with the complexities of the DVR audience,” says Nielsen in a report it’s begun circulating with some clients in the past couple of weeks. “The resulting SAA would be a summary of all minutes viewed by the viewing audience. For example, if a specific home watches a given [minute of programming] of a program more than once, each minute would be credited toward the SAA minutes for the given program.”
The SAAs are part of a bigger proposal Nielsen is pitching for an array of new time-shifted viewing, or “TSV” products that may also include analyses of so-called “trick” viewing features enabled by DVRs, such as fast-forwarding, pausing, slow-motion, and replaying within an episode.
Joe rightly points out that ABC is apparently missing from this group. The network appears to be “increasingly breaking ranks from other broadcasters in their position concerning non-linear distribution.”
We’ll know a lot more about this next week, including whether ABC continues to remain a lone wolf. Frankly, I hope they do, because I think Wurtzel and his cronies are feeding off a carcass with scant meat. We all understand why they’re doing it and that Nielsen’s “new” methodology was inevitable. It’s a diversion, however, and unless it’s accompanied by aggressive strategies in new media directions, it’s a waste of time and energy.
Some will argue that broadcasting must defend itself against increasingly wise advertisers, but the reality is that the advertisers — um, that would be the people PAYING for everything — are a lot closer to everyday people than mainstream media ever were.
Malone: It’s going to be huge
Friday, November 11th, 2005Liberty Media CEO John Malone on unbundled media:
…the public’s appetite to get content off the internet onto storage devices which are portable and flexible, I think, is going to be a huge business…
(BTW, if Paid Content isn’t on your RSS reader, I encourage you to subscribe. Rafat and Staci are simply the best at staying on top of money issues in our ever-changing media world.)
Mainstream Media Meltdown — by the numbers
Thursday, November 10th, 2005Chris Anderson — he of “The Long Tail” fame — posts numbers that paint a very real picture of what’s happening in the mainstream media space. You’ll want to read this.
He writes that while TV viewing is up overall, viewing continues to be fragmented. This renders irrelevant all those nice press releases from Nielsen touting a growing marketplace. I’ve written about this before, but Chris offers a wonderful graph:








