2008: Embracing the (Real) Web
Here’s my annual state of things and predictions essay, 2008: Embracing the (Real) Web.
I like to stick with broad themes in forecasting media movement, because nobody really knows, with specificity, where things are going. We’re in the middle of profound change, and if I had all the answers, I’d be rich. I’m not (of course), but my track record has been pretty good, and it goes back a number of years. Here’s one sentence I wrote a year ago: “The most visible and obvious online media story of 2007 will be the shift of the internet’s center away from text and towards video.” Anybody want to argue with that?
My boss, Jerry Gumbert, says “2008 will be all about getting ready for 2009,” and I agree with him. ‘09 sends chills down the spines of every media company executive, but I think the fear is healthy, especially if it moves us to action. And that action must be in areas beyond our ad-supported content business models. The (Real) Web makes that possible. He who has ears to hear, let him hear.
May the new year bring you joy and prosperity.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:35 am
Actually, I DO want to argue the point of the Internet’s “center” shifting toward video — define “center.” I think if we move too far away from text, too fast, it’s at our own risk. On our hyperlocal news site, for example, we use video as flavoring, but text and photos are still what our visitors/users/readers/whatever-you-want-to-call-them rely on to get information quickly and to be able to scan it and process it efficiently. Two lines about “there’s a fire at 9000 20th SW and nearby intersections are blocked” were far more valuable in a breaking-news situation, for example, than the :25 of video we rushed over and shot, showing firefighters on the roof and people huddling outside the building. Text is also what our community members use to communicate with us and each other, at least as the first line of response, with UGC video and photos the next layer down. I just left a Major Media Company which had decided that most of its local-news sites would center on video players, while dramatically downplaying headline collections and moving them below the fold; I think this is a mistake. Embrace video, tell stories with video, but don’t forget that viewing video is not the most efficient or quick way to process information, nor the easiest way to refer back to it — that’s why so many of us have abandoned TV as a primary news source, in the first place — let’s not morph the Net completely into TV, The Next Generation.
December 30th, 2007 at 6:01 am
sorry to my friend at west seattle blog, but “the Internet’s center” leaves alot of space for audio AND text.
the internet will not be “TV, the next generation”, tv will be tv, the next generation. it’ll have to be or risk becoming even more irrelevant.
in the meantime, the internet will continue to morph into part tv, part newspaper, part radio, part cell phone, part microwave oven, blender, blowdryer, etc.
the best part is, as terry says, “nobody really knows”. we are so young in this that all we can think in terms of is what we know from the past.
btw- happy new year to all!
December 30th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Tracy,
Thank you for your comment. Your point is well-taken, and I don’t disagree. In fact, my advice to clients who are essentially serving an audience at work is to not make video or audio center stage.
But here’s what I wrote a year ago:
One of the inherent problems in writing about this stuff is the incessant need to define terms. I hope this helps you understand what I meant a little better.
Terry